Economy moving closer to recession



      Indian fears about the economy moving closer  to recession

 

Feeling low? You're not the only one. According to a survey of 21 major nations conducted by the Pew Research Center, Indians today stand out globally in terms of their declining optimism. The study says Indians have lost more faith in their country's economy - and its future - than other nations over the past year. Our low spirits are comparable now to the recession-hit west, and not to emerging economy peers like Brazil or China. 84% respondents in Brazil and 83% in China display confidence in their economic future. In sharp contrast, only 45% Indians feel the same optimism about their economy improving in the next 12 months. India fears about the economy moving closer to recession

This is not only a huge decline relative to economies once clubbed together with India in a league of possible breakout nations. This reflects a large drop of confidence within India itself, optimism falling by 15% from just one year ago. Palpable concerns are fuelling such pessimism. About 80% respondents stated unemployment was a huge concern. In addition, 79% stated rising prices were a massive worry. Amongst other problems, 71% stated concern over growing crime, 70% over corrupt officials - and 92% squarely blamed the government for the economic quagmire they found themselves in.


It's little surprise that about 61% respondents preferred a free market economy over a statist system of opaque patronage and tight control. This dovetails with the empowering belief two in every three Indians stated - that people can succeed if they work hard. However, despite individuals willing to work for a better future, the most worrying revelation is that 66% or two-thirds of the Indians surveyed felt their children would have a difficult time even finding a good job and becoming wealthier than themselves. That's in painful contrast to how half the Indian respondents said they were better off than five years ago, two thirds adding their standard of living was better compared to their parents' at the same age.


Clearly the economic reforms initiated in the 1990s benefited large groups of people in important and empowering ways, laying the basis of today's aspirational India. But those aspirations have been hit hard by the UPA government's persistent inability to push through with the next phase of reforms as well as clean up gathering cesspools of corruption and cronyism. The government would do well to heed this and other signs of the darkening public mood across the country.

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